By Curtis Williams and Scott DiSavino
HOUSTON, March 4 (Reuters) – The U.S. has little spare capacity to quickly lift output of liquefied natural gas and offset lost supply after Qatar halted production due to the conflict in the Middle East, according to Reuters calculations and industry analysts.
The U.S., the world’s largest LNG producer, exports nearly 19 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas that is converted into LNG, LSEG data shows. While almost double the 10 bcfd Qatar was forced to remove from the market on Monday after a wave of attacks, American export plants are running nearly full tilt with most cargoes locked into long‑term contracts.
“There is no massive capacity on the sidelines,” said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG at research firm Rapidan Energy Group.
Leading exporter Cheniere Energy sold 46 million metric tons of LNG last year and on Tuesday was drawing more than 7 bcfd of feed gas for its two Gulf Coast terminals. While the company last week began production from Train 5 of its Stage 3 expansion at Corpus Christi, the unit – relatively small with capacity to produce 1.5 million tons per year – is expected to take about a month to reach full output. Most of it has been contracted out.
Cheniere told Reuters it was monitoring developments in the Middle East and will deliver on customer commitments.
No. 2 U.S. producer Venture Global has the most flexibility to help in the short term because it is selling as much as 4 bcfd of commissioning volumes from its Plaquemines plant in Louisiana on the spot market. That gives it more room to redirect cargoes, CEO Mike Sabel said during an earnings call on Monday.
Plaquemines will be capable of producing 35 million tons per year once fully online, he added.
The project was originally approved at 20 million tons per year and then increased to 27.2 million tons. It awaits final sign‑off from the U.S. Department of Energy for additional expansion, and, if received quickly, Venture Global could boost output by up to 800 million cubic feet per day, although that would be just a fraction of the capacity lost in Qatar.
Venture Global declined further comment.
Another new supply source, the Golden Pass LNG project — a joint venture between QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil — is expected to begin initial production this month, with demand for gas to be converted into LNG expected to reach about 800 million cubic feet per day for the first 6 million tons per annum facility.
“With the U.S. already exporting LNG at effectively maximum capacity, the war cannot materially increase physical demand for U.S. gas in the short‑ to medium‑term,” analysts at EBW Analytics Group said.
US, AUSTRALIA AND QATAR ACCOUNT FOR MUCH OF GLOBAL LNG OUTPUT
Global gas consumption is around 400 bcfd, energy analysts estimate. Roughly 55 bcfd of that is traded as LNG, with the U.S., Australia and Qatar accounting for about 60% of global output, according to the International Gas Union.
Before halting production, Qatar supplied around 10 bcfd of LNG to buyers in Europe and Asia. Australia ships around 11 bcfd. Smaller producers have limited room to increase flows. LNG Canada has capacity to produce up to 2 bcfd and is currently running at about 1.5 bcfd, LSEG data shows.
In Trinidad and Tobago, the National Gas Company is diverting more gas to Atlantic LNG to maximize exports, Chairman Gerald Ramdeen told Reuters on Tuesday.
With one train mothballed and another undergoing repairs, Atlantic can use about 1.2 bcfd of gas. It was already running near 1 bcfd, giving it room to add only around 200 million cubic feet in the short term, according to LSEG.
In all, Reuters calculations show that new U.S. production that could come online soon is unlikely to exceed 2 bcfd, far short of the gap left by Qatar. Prospective buyers would need to find transport vessels and pay for them to reroute to the other side of the Earth.
Gas prices surged on Tuesday, with Dutch TTF benchmark hitting a three‑year high near $19 per mmBtu, while the Japan-Korea Marker rose to an eight‑month high near $13.
Even with what is likely to be a major LNG supply disruption, there are so far no signs of LNG diversions happening, according to maritime data analytics platform Kpler.
(Reporting by Curtis Williams in Houston and Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Nathan Crooks and David Gregorio)
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