Howdy Buzz-kateers…
So I haven’t actually written anything in awhile, but it’s a significant enough “franchise crossroads” moment, that I figured: for posterity, best to get it all down on paper… or whatever the internets actually made of… (And I know, tad lengthy… but there’s alot to digest here… so strap in folks!)
So we have possibly come to the end of the Giannis era in Milwaukee… maybe… frankly who knows?
Kind of amazing how words get spun when you’ve got multiple hours to fill on TV, and a guy who’s DESPERATE to be right because he’s hitched his wagon to the “Giannis leaving Milwaukee” story being his ticket to being a legitimate replacement for Woj. (But I digress…) See… because words are important. Jimmy Haslam’s exact quote was: “I just think before the draft is a natural time”, which is a correct and reasonable assessment of things. You’d LIKE to have this all figured out by then… however it also doesn’t HAVE to be. Somehow this statement has become spun into a “June 23 is the drop dead date”, and honestly, that just ain’t the case.
Side note: All the flaws in Haslam’s Browns ownership aside (and frankly, that’s the scariest part of this whole thing… in the end, it sure seems like the “buck stops with him” in the franchises decision making process (as Wes Edens sure seems to currently have (gulp) problems of his own at this point, but that’s a whole ‘nother story…) and hearing HE’S the one, is like hearing Anatoly Dyatlov just took over as plant manager at Point Beach… (Google it if you don’t know, or at a minimum watch the HBO mini-series, which was AMAZING) however… even the “stupidest transaction series in sports history” does have one silver lining attached to it… dude doesn’t seem to have a problem opening his wallet. It was spending said money in an astoundingly stupid fashion in the case of DeShaun Watson (and everybody kinda knew that in the moment…), but given the options, “spend stupidly” is better than “cheap/poor”. And honestly, falling in the “reasons for hope” category, there is sort of a parallel story. Remember when Miles Garrett asked for a trade last February? He was done, gone, over it in Cleveland (because frankly, who wouldn’t be at this point?) and then a Brinks truck backed up and dumped $123 million guaranteed on his lawn… and all of a sudden those concerns didn’t matter so much, and he broke the sack record wearing an orange helmet on a team going nowhere last season. The lesson: money fixes alot of things, especially when it’s a SHITLOAD of money. And Jimmy Haslam has a SHITLOAD of money, and doesn’t seem to mind spending it. So we can almost totally guarantee, if he’s not back, at the very least it won’t be the traditional “Wendy Seligs cracking open piggy banks to try to make payroll” story arc we’re all so very used to around here.
Anywho… back to the point: glory hunting linguistic semantics in the coverage aside, we have pretty obviously reached a franchise crossroads. Should he stay or should he go?
Me, I happen to live in the “keep Giannis” camp. Playing devils advocate (just to get this out of the way) I do understand the other side of the argument (age, mileage, that’s a HUGE cap number, the resources we could get back). And should he “want out” at this point (which BTW I don’t believe… and not necessarily for any altruistic “this is my city” reasons… but strictly from a business standpoint: the Bucks can put 4 years, $275 million on the table… anyone else, he’s either gotta take a significant paycut, or wait and play things out and pray everything goes perfectly in the interim. And even for an “already rich professional athlete”, the monetary difference falls squarely into the “metric shitload of money category”, and even in a “betting on yourself” situation, that gamble would be 1000% a “sucker bet”) I hope we can make the best deal possible (and I’ll address the fallacy of the “return” argument in a bit here) and I wish him well, and no hard feelings (as I absolutely grant: the organizational clown show the last 4+ years has been ALOT for anyone to take) as we do have the banner, and “flags fly forever”.
However, my argument for keeping him is actually pretty simple: with him, even a reduced him, you’re still “relevant” in the landscape of the NBA. Without him, you aren’t. It’s honestly that simple.
And when I say “irrelevant” I don’t just mean “bad team in the near future” or “they aren’t talking about us on any national media platform” (though honestly: that would be refreshing at this point… think of a world where Stephen A, Windy, Big Perk, and Shams all forgot we existed, and we never had to hear from them again… (sigh) but we put our dreams away for today…). I mean “irrelevant” as in squarely back in the “cap space doesn’t matter, because nobody’s coming here” place. The “good thing that arena lease runs through 2046 so we don’t have to have the “I hope the teams not in Seattle next season” discussions again” place. Back to the Uecker memorial: “Folks if you’re just driving around out there… plenty of room for ya in here tonight…” place. And having lived for a VERY long time in the previous “irrelevant” era, I’m personally in no hurry to go back.
“But Otto… what about the return we’d get for Giannis in a trade? Wouldn’t that be the foundation of a new era of relevancy?” Uh huh… about that…
Coming up with what would be a “fair” return for Giannis to Milwaukee is kind of an impossible task. It’s like swapping for the Hope Diamond. It’s a “one of one” situation, and frankly, he’s worth a whole lot more to us than anything we’d ever get back, or he’d ever be to anyone else. He represents the “light from the darkness of the wilderness”. Even if you got back someone with a similar talent level and skill set (and we won’t… because that player really doesn’t exist, and the one’s you’d call “better” in one way or another aren’t available…) they’ll never be “him”. They’ll never be the kid who “grew up” here, they’ll never be the guy with the “aww shucks” reactions who we got to watch blossom into the dominant force in the league, they’ll never be “our guy”.
But even taking that part out, what guy on that level is even available? Even if you get say a Jaylen Brown back, is that “enough”? I don’t see it (he’s a fine player, but is he a “leader”? Is there anything unique about his game? Is he not just another of like 35 other “fine” – “good” guys in the league, who are good enough to get you maybe a “6 seed/play in and out” every year? A rich mans “Michael Redd”? Sorry, but been there… lived in that “death spiral” for a VERY long time… not in a hurry to go back). And BTW if you think “freed up cap space” is in and of itself a “win” and a pathway to getting a “name”… excluding the current “Giannis era”, please: name me the major “needle mover” free agent who’s EVER signed in Milwaukee… Mo Williams? Anthony Mason?
OK, so… what if the option is a handful of young “magic beans”? We’ve been down that road before too… and what’d Junior Bridgeman, Elmore Smith, Brian Winters, and Dave Meyers get us? A decade of somewhere between “meh?” and “good, but not good enough” basketball; segueing smoothly into being the “Barry Horowitz” of the Eastern conference; jobbing to Doctor J, Larry Bird, the Pistons, and eventually MJ every April… and again: almost total irrelevance. When I was a kid (and absolutely true: the media landscape then was not the media landscape of today, but there was still a national presence… and the Bucks were NOT a part of it. Like even a little) national TV games were NOT a thing for us. Why? Because why would they have been? Junior Bridgeman, Sidney Moncrief, Marques Johnson, and Paul Pressey were fine players… and the needle never moved. (Which also adds to the whole “no free agent is EVER coming here…” part).
Which leads us to everyone’s favorite “pipe dream”. The “basket of picks”. Ooook… number 1: Like I say EVERY time this comes up… if you trade Giannis for someone’s picks, by definition: those picks are GOING to suck the next few years, because: Giannis is on the team! (Frankly, that’s why I never minded trading our picks, because it ain’t like they were going to be all that good while he was here anyway). But even if you manage to rope a 3rd or 4th team in, and get their first rounders and wind up with a couple years of top 3.. top 5… hell even top 10 picks… lets break down how that’s gone historically for this team… here is every top 10 pick the Bucks have ever made:
Year Rd Pick
1968 1 7 Charlie Paulk (17 games, and drafted to serve in Vietnam… traded for Oscar… so that “worked” in the end… kinda)
1969 1 1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (God bless that coin flip)
1972 1 6 Russ Lee (we also took Dr J at 12 that year… and that mess that became could be it’s own book… but we COULD have had Kareem, Oscar, and Dr J starting in 1972… (SMDH)
1976 1 7 Quinn Buckner (intangibles a plenty… great “leader of men”… and scored 13.3 a game in his best season…)
1977 1 1 Kent Benson (who got punched in the head by Kareem, and was “OK” at best… zero time All Star. Not a great year to have #1 overall… but did alot better at 3…)
1977 1 3 Marques Johnson (great player, no titles, but good pick)
1979 1 5 Sidney Moncrief (great player, no titles, but good pick)
1992 1 8 Todd Day (“meh”? I mean, “fine”, but… I won’t exactly be telling the grandkids tales of Todd Day on the floor at the BC)
1993 1 8 Vin Baker (the most “meh?” multi-time all star ever…)
1994 1 1 Glenn Robinson (got right to the edge of “superstar”… and just never took the step… still have to forever wonder the “what if” of the “01 East Finals”)
1996 1 4 Stephon Marbury (but really the pick was Ray Allen… that worked… however: still have to forever wonder the “what if” of the “01 East Finals”)
1997 1 10 Danny Fortson (swapped with Joe Wolf for Ervin Johnson… that was actually the smarter move…LOL)
1998 1 9 Dirk Nowitzki (but really the pick was (sigh) “Tractor” Traylor… and that SO was NOT the smarter move… SMDH)
2003 1 8 T. J. Ford (if only his neck held up… if ONLY… BTW: taking him, meant in 2 years, we already had a point guard of the future, so we passed on Deron Williams and Chris Paul for…)
2005 1 1 Andrew Bogut (again: he was fine. Good dude, got about as much out of his talent as he possibly could in Milwaukee, again: another pretty shit year to have the #1 overall pick…)
2007 1 6 Yi Jianlian (oooof… though again: really, REALLY bad draft overall outside of Durant…)
2008 1 8 Joe Alexander (again: oooof… though again: BAD draft after the top 5. Though the funny part, most of the “serviceable” guys we passed on to draft #seeJoedunk, (Lopez twins, Serge Ibaka, George Hill) all eventually wound up here anyway… )
2009 1 10 Brandon Jennings (again: he was OK, not like we missed on anything “mega” after him, as the only other real “name” guy to go was Jrue Holiday… who we wound up with eventually… and probably should have kept in hindsight…)
2011 1 10 Jimmer Fredette (who we traded to Sacramento, and if you look at all the names involved in that 3 teamer, it’s literally the definition of “moving deck chairs on the Titanic”, and somehow, NOBODY won that trade)
2014 1 2 Jabari Parker ((sigh) the Nick Nolte memorial “Awwwwwwwww hell…” pick… more on him in a second)
2016 1 10 Thon Maker (if someone could have just showed the guy how to get to Kopps Frozen Custard… what could have been? He was always like 25lbs away from being able to “hang” in the NBA…)
So that’s 21 top 10 picks… if we give a score of 2 points for a “hit”, 1 point for a “not regrettable”, and half point for a “meh”… that’s approximately 14.5 out of a possible 42. That’s about a 35% hit rate. That’s not great… and if you expand it to every 1st round pick ever:
Year Rd Pick
1970 1 16 Gary Freeman
1971 1 17 Collis Jones
1972 1 12 Julius Erving (gotta give it a “zero” since all the Bucks eventually got out of it was $100K from the Hawks and 2 2nd rounders…)
1973 1 16 Swen Nater
1974 1 18 Gary Brokaw
1977 1 11 Ernie Grunfeld
1978 1 12 George Johnson
1981 1 21 Alton Lister
1982 1 20 Paul Pressey
1983 1 18 Randy Breuer
1984 1 21 Kenny Fields
1985 1 22 Jerry Reynolds
1986 1 22 Scott Skiles
1988 1 13 Jeff Grayer
1990 1 16 Terry Mills
1991 1 18 Kevin Brooks
1992 1 23 Lee Mayberry
1994 1 18 Eric Mobley
1995 1 11 Gary Trent Sr (Draft day traded for Shawn Respert… so 0)
1998 1 19 Pat Garrity (Draft day traded with Dirk for Tractor Traylor… so 0)
2000 1 15 Jason Collier (Draft day traded for Joel Przybilla… so that’s a 1)
2002 1 13 Marcus Haislip
2010 1 15 Larry Sanders (LOL… ya know… I’ll give him a .5… but my Lord… more on that later… LMAO)
2012 1 14 John Henson
2013 1 15 Giannis Antetokounmpo
2015 1 17 Rashad Vaughn
2017 1 17 D. J. Wilson
2018 1 17 Donte DiVincenzo
2019 1 30 Kevin Porter Jr.
2020 1 24 R. J. Hampton (Traded for Jrue Holiday… but he’s been a .5 at best… so give it a 1…)
2022 1 24 MarJon Beauchamp
2024 1 23 AJ Johnson
So using that same scale, out of a possible 106: 30.5… so 28%. So we’d be moving arguably the greatest player in franchise history for 3 in 10 chance at something ranging from “OK” to “excellent”… and if we’re realistically going for “excellent” only, a 2% chance it “works”. Yeah… not so much.
And finally the argument of “Trade him, clear cap, bottom out, tank and rebuild”…
- No pick in 2027, 2028’s pick is swapped all over the place, 2029’s gone, 2030 has “swap” rights to Portland. So “tanking” is of no use until at least the next decade.
2. Who knows exactly how the new “anti-tanking” rules are going to effect picks going forward.
3. What’s the greatest “tanking” job you’ve ever seen? There’s plenty of candidates, but for this example, lets go with the 2013-14 Bucks… Larry Sanders got his big extension, was tagged as the “future of the franchise”… and then missed 25 games messing up his thumb fighting in the club, fractured his orbital socket, and THEN managed to get suspended while out for the season for weed… Larry Drew was a disaster as coach, and the Bucks wound up 5th in wins… among NBA or D1 NCAA basketball teams in the state of Wisconsin… (Badgers 30 wins, UWGB 24 wins, UWM 21 wins, Marquette 17 wins… Bucks 15 wins… despite playing around 40 more games than the college teams). It was literally as miserable a season as you could live through as a fan. And all that “work” resulted in… Jabari Parker at number 2… yeah.
“Bottom out and tank” works if your the Spurs because the 3 times they’ve done it, they got David Robinson, Tim Duncan, and Victor Wembanyama. That’s ASTOUNDING luck, and trust me, we don’t have that. It “worked” for this years Thunder because the Clippers were VERY stupid (which… I mean… they still are… so maybe that’s the phone call to make…). But in general: it’s a strategy that bad GM’s use to create an illusion of hope and buy time. And more specifically to this situation (and this would be the thing most of the national pundits seem to miss in this discussion): you take a franchise that’s already the “3rd middle child” in the Wisconsin sports fan pecking order (Packers 1, always will be; Brewers 2; Bucks are currently 3 because they have Giannis, and “the vest” is in charge in Madison…). Now take the beloved icon off the roster, and “bottom completely out”; and the Admirals may draw better than the Bucks, and it’ll be a REAL long time before people “believe” in this franchise again.
Wisconsin is still a place where “loyalty” exists. And we have LONG memories (I still curse the name of Sal Bando for not paying Paul Molitor… my father still speaks with an acid tongue about Dan Devine trading for John Hadl… my grandfather never allowed a Coca-Cola in his house because they were a driving force in the Braves moving to Atlanta… and so on). There’s a reason Packer alumni from some of the really lousy 80’s teams still appear at super market openings around here. “Our guys” are “our guys”. And Giannis is on the rare “elite” level of “honorary native Wisconsinite” with the Yount’s and Favre’s. You don’t move off of that that unless the cupboard is completely bare, the fortress is surrounded, or the doors have fallen off the Bluesmobile.
And honestly, if the options are “sacrifice what’s left to try to save a potential future” or “ride it till the wheels come totally off, and pay the price of suffering a little more when ashes are all that’s left to build on”… we’re Wisconsin sports fans. Suffering through years of “rebuilds from the ashes” is what we do. And really, to quote the great Jim Morrison: “I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I hope we get our kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames”.
Actually, the most apt quote I can think of for this situation would be: “I’d keep playing. I don’t think the heavy stuff’s gonna come down for quite awhile.” Keep him, and see what we can Band-aid together. We have an actual coach now, so that’ll help. Here’s hoping the #10 pick gets turned into something useful, Horst can get someone drunk enough in Vegas enough during summer league to convince them that Kuzma’s $20 million expiring deal could be a useful asset (or failing that, he can get like a 30 pack of PBR or a ham sandwich back for the guy… either way: let him be GONE… please), and we get one more “run” with the big guy.
Just one fans opinion. Have a good one.
Otto
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