CANBERRA (Reuters) – Rainfall in some parts of Australia has helped lift confidence among Australian farmers, but their expectations for the future remain near their most pessimistic level since 2018, a survey released on Wednesday showed.
After three years of plentiful rainfall, an El Nino weather phenomenon brought dry and hot weather to Australia this year, shrinking wheat production and depressing livestock prices.
The government expects the value of Australian agricultural production to fall to A$78 billion ($51 billion) in the 2023-24 financial year from A$94 billion in 2022-23.
However, recent rain has helped forestall further harvest losses, lifted cattle and sheep prices somewhat and improved prospects for summer crops such as sorghum.
A quarterly survey of around 1,000 farmers by Rabobank found that 14% expected the agricultural economy to improve over the next year, up from 10% three months ago.
But 27% expect conditions to remain stable and 55% thought they would worsen, Rabobank said.
Some farmers told Rabobank they expected higher prices for goods such as sugar and dairy products, but many others were pessimistic about commodity prices and wary of prolonged dry weather in a country prone to drought.
Farmers in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania were most pessimistic, while those in New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland were more positive, the survey found.
Those outlooks largely depended on the weather, said Rabobank executive Marcel van Doremaele.
Differing weather conditions had “buoyed the sentiment of those fortunate enough to receive beneficial rain, but intensified concerns about a dry year ahead for others,” he said.
($1 = 1.5242 Australian dollars)
(Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Sonali Paul)
