The wise, old sage of the Green Bay Packers, 37 year old Marcedes Lewis, as he usually does, put it best.
“This is gonna be a two-chin strap game,” he said Thursday, “and that means be prepared, be prepared to bite down on that mouth piece. We’re gonna have to earn this one.”
The 10-3 Packers meet the 8-5 Baltimore Ravens Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium at 3:25 PM CST. Both teams lead their respective conference’s North Division race heading into the final month. Green Bay can clinch a third straight division title with a victory. The Ravens have Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh right on their heels as they return home for only the second time since early November. This is just the seventh meeting between the franchises with the Packers holding a 4-2 advantage in the series.
Both teams have former MVP quarterbacks dealing with injuries. Aaron Rodgers will play his fifth game with a broken pinkie toe on his left foot while Lamar Jackson is nursing an ankle he sprained in last week’s loss at Cleveland. Neither has practiced all week and while Rodgers will definitely play, there is some question over whether Jackson might miss the first game of his career.
When the Packers have the ball.
Despite playing on nine good toes for over a month, Rodgers has still been fantastic. In the last three games, he’s led the NFL in passing yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt and passer rating. He’ll be going against a Baltimore defense that ranks 18th in yards allowed per game, primarily because they are next to last in defending the pass. The Ravens are the league’s best however, at stopping the run, giving up just 85 yards a game. Taking away the run keeps teams behind the chains and Baltimore gets off the field with a number three ranking on third down defense. They’re also a top five unit in the red zone. The Packers will still try and hammer A.J. Dillon into the box and hope a sore hamstring with Aaron Jones doesn’t take him out of the equation, especially as a check down or screen receiver. Baltimore’s secondary has been hit hard with injury, losing top corner Marlon Humphrey for the season two weeks ago. Plays can still be made downfield against this unit if Rodgers has enough time to let downfield routes develop behind a second and third string offensive line across the board. The front of Yosh Nijman, Jon Runyan, Lucas Patrick, Royce Newman and now Dennis Kelly for the injured Billy Turner will have to hold up against an aggressive, pressure heavy front seven. Look for more quick rhythm throws to be released before that pressure arrives. Coverage attention will be geared toward Davante Adams, with good reason. Even with that attention, Adams has still been getting open because of his expert route running or creative formations. It all hinges though on being effective and committed enough to a run game against a salty defense.
When the Ravens have the ball.
Jackson obviously holds the key. When Baltimore drafted him out of Louisville, the developed their entire offense around his skills as a runner, more than a passer. It’s the most unique scheme in the league. Jackson leads the team in rushing by over 300 yards. The ball is always in his hands on either designed runs or scrambles. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s unit has now seen a fair share of above average mobile quarterbacks this season so they should be prepared. If Jackson doesn’t play, backup Tyler Huntley has proved to be only slightly less dangerous. He’s a smaller, maybe quicker version of Jackson and he might grade out higher as a downfield passer. The Ravens are tight end driven in the passing game with Mark Andrews leading the team in targets and receptions with 75. Marquise Brown out wide has 70 receptions and this year’s first round pick, Rashod Bateman of Minnesota, had a breakout game last week with 7 catches for 103 yards as Huntly nearly led a comeback against Cleveland and Jackson suffered his injury. The potential loss of Kenny Clark will hurt. He was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Thursday. Rookie T.J. Slaton’s snap count will jump this weekend, especially on early downs. De’vondre Campbell will probably lurk in the box as the quarterback’s shadow. There’s an outside chance Jaire Alexander will make his season debut but even if not, the Packer corners are equipped to match up with Baltimore’s receivers. They’ll need to be sure tacklers though to prevent Jackson or Huntley from making explosive gains with their legs.
Oh, those special teams.
Coordinator Maurice Drayton believes the coverage breakdowns last week against Chicago were the exception rather than rule and said he’s been a “Positive Pete” in team meetings this week. Drayton said no one felt worse than the players about that performance but execution has to be there on Sundays moving forward. The Raven special teams, coordinated by Chris Horton under a former special teams coach in John Harbaugh, have always ranked as one of the league’s best and the third phase challenge must be met.
The bottom line.
I’m not sure if the Packers haven’t reached the breaking point with injuries on the offensive line and key absences on defense. This is clearly the most difficult of the remaining four games in the December drive for the Pack. The top teams in the NFC (Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Dallas, L.A. Rams) appear to be more complete than the AFC contenders outside of perhaps New England and Kansas City. I’ll put the Packers in the class over the Ravens, but just barely. Thanks to buckling up that second chin strap, an important road win and a division crown can be secured in Baltimore.
I like the Pack, 23-20.