How to make a complex situation simple? That’s the challenge posed to the National Weather Service concerning severe weather potential now through Thursday, but they did their best with a preview on Tuesday afternoon.
During a Tuesday afternoon web meeting, NWS meteorologist Tim Halbach advised that there is still much uncertainty behind the cautionary message, given that five individual rounds of significant thunderstorms may be experienced within the next 48 hours.
NWS Graphic
Focusing only on Sheboygan County, the risk is highest – 3 out of 5 – midday Wednesday into the evening hours. Those risks include wind and hail in the morning, with an added risk of tornadoes in the afternoon.
Overnight Wednesday there’s a medium risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and flooding with the peak hours between 9 PM and 12 Midnight. Those winds could reach 80 MPH while hail could reach golfball to baseball size. As for tornadoes, the highest potential is from the afternoon to early evening and much uncertainty remains over their likelihood. That being said, southwestern and south-central Wisconsin are at the greatest risk of severe weather during that period.
NWS Graphic
On Thursday morning, attention turns to an expected system of thunderstorms developing in Iowa that progresses eastward, reaching the Lake Michigan shoreline between Noon and 2 PM. Wind, Hail and flooding rains would be the most likely elements of concern then. During Thursday afternoon, a medium risk of all four elements including tornadoes will be present, but much depends upon what preceding weather events do to the atmosphere, and so the public should keep up with the forecasts.
One nearly-certain concern is that of hot weather on Wednesday. The clouds and rain that linger will weigh heavily upon whether or not a heat advisory is needed; in the Sheboygan Area, it will likely feel like the upper 80s to the mid 90s on Wednesday afternoon.
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