It’s Opening Day, we haven’t even seen a pitch yet and Jackson Chourio is headed to the IL. Fun!

So here I am, minding my own business (while hosting a radio show), getting all jacked up for Opening Day today, and what happens?? This:

The Brewers haven’t even thrown a pitch yet and one of our most important players is headed to the IL, out 2-4 weeks. Fun!

Now if you’ll recall, Chourio got hit on the hand while playing for Team Venezuela in the WBC back in early March. At the time everyone said he was fine, he played in just about every game for Venezuela, and has played in several games for the Brewers since the WBC ended, but apparently he was experiencing soreness so they did an MRI and it came back with a hairline fracture on his left hand. I suppose you could make the case that it’s better that something like this happen now as opposed to in September, but as a Wisconsin sports fan, I’m sure some kind of misfortune will also be there for us in that month as well.

Alright, I’m not going to let this injury news dampen my spirits. Baseball is BACK, baby!

The Brewers are the 3-time defending NL Central champions, and are looking to build on a run to the NLCS last season. In my mind, there are 3 *MAJOR* keys to the season:

1. Avoid injuries. This team has depth but they can’t afford to see key players go down. Especially guys like Jackson Chourio. We need him to take a step forward, and after dealing with hamstring issues at the end of last year, it would be great to have him be completely healthy in his 3rd Major League season. 
2. Can the players we got back in all of our offseason trades contribute this season. There was a LOT of roster overhaul for a team coming off of a franchise record in wins and an appearance in the NLCS. Two Top 5 ROY candidates were traded (Isaac Collins and Caleb Durbin), and a top 5 Cy Young finisher and rotation stalwart, Freddy Peralta, was sent to New York. Two key pieces coming back in those trades, Brandon Sproat and Kyle Harrison, are both starting the season in the rotation, and David Hamilton figures to get plenty of playing time as well. If Sproat and Harrison can be factors, that’s a huge boost. If the Hamilton/Rengifo combo at 3rd base and give you Durbin-esque production, that would be huge as well.
3. Brandon Woodruff. He made his return from major shoulder surgery last season, went 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA over 11 starts before a lat injury ended his season in September. He looked really solid, even with decreased velocity. He got a good chunk of change in the offseason on a 1-year deal, now can he put up numbers AND be healthy. Freddy Peralta was tremendous last season, but regardless of whether or not he’s having a Cy Young caliber season, one thing he always did was take the ball every 5 days. You could rely on that. 30 starts in 2023, 32 in 2024, 33 in 2025. Woodruff is the veteran on a REALLY young staff. More than they need to replace Peralta’s production, they need someone to replace that consistency and reliability. That has to be Woody.

The over/under on season wins is set at 84.5, and you already know we’re on the over. Even though this is a higher number than in previous years (highest since 2018 I believe), this franchise has been SMASHING the over on season wins for the better part of a decade. The only time they went “under” was in the 60-game pandemic season in 2020. And we’re not counting that because I’m not counting any season where fans in the stands were made of carboard. Every single season since 2016, they’ve hit the over comfortably, so I’m going to bet that continues (this is not financial advice)(wink).

I believe in Murphy, I believe in the culture that he’s built, and I believe that even with the roster turnover, we’ve got a front office and coaching staff that are in lockstep. I expect another 90-ish win season, and a battle with the Cubs for the division title.

PS: Related: Brewers to make the playoffs at -110; Brewers to win the division at +230, Miz to win the Cy Young at +2750.