So we got the news that we figured we were going to get when Dame went down with a non-contact injury in the first quarter of Game 4 on Sunday: Torn Achilles. Absolutely BRUTAL. He miraculously made it back from a blood clot in his calf in 30 days, played in Games 2 and 3, and then this happens. As we talked about on the podcast yesterday, you could tell by the expression on his face on Sunday that he knew it was bad, and he had that smirk on his face which seemed to say, “are you f—- kidding me?”
First things first: T’s and P’s up for Dame. I think we can all admit at this point that the Dame in Milwaukee storyline hasn’t quite gone the way we thought it would when they traded for him in September of 2023. It hasn’t been as bad as some people have made it out to be, Dame has been an All Star in both of his seasons in Milwaukee and him and Giannis are the best scoring duo in the league, but the chemistry hasn’t quite come together the way we all hoped it would. It hasn’t been for lack of hard work or effort on anyone’s part, and this has to be a devastating blow for him as he stares down a year-long rehab at 34 years-old.
On to the elephant in the room: The offseason and Giannis.
I’m a Goonies, “never say die,” fan, so of course I’ve talked myself into them somehow winning tonight, getting back to Milwaukee and winning Game 6, and then “anything can happen in a Game 7.” But the reality is, the Bucks season is (likely) over. And it’s probably over tonight. Which means this franchise is about to hit a MAJOR inflection point this summer.
Now can I be honest for a second? Given the way this playoff series has gone even with Dame on the floor, it feels unlikely they were getting out of the first round. I hate to say, but that’s probably true. BUT, in that timeline, a timeline where they’re out in the first round but your key players are healthy, you had some options this offseason. You could burn it all down, you could burn it down around Dame and Giannis and try one last run with those two as your key players, or you could burn it all down around Giannis and see what you could get for Dame on the trade market. I’ll grant you, the Bucks probably weren’t going to get as much as they gave up for Dame if they went in that direction, but I think Dame at least gets you a 1st round pick and a decent role player in return.
The problem with this particular injury is that you no longer have the “trade Dame and use some of those assets to rebuild around Giannis” option. Dame can’t play next year, and no one is trading for a 34-year old guard who can’t play next season and is about to turn 35. So now you’re still kind of in salary cap hell (even with Brook’s contract coming off of the books this summer), you don’t really have anything other teams want, and you don’t have any draft picks because you spent them all supplementing the roster over the last 3-5 seasons.
Woof.
So, that leads us to the cataclysmic option: Trading Giannis.
I hate even typing that. But there is already a segment of Bucks fans who are saying that trading Giannis is the only real way to wipe the board clean and start over at this point. And you know what? If starting over is what you want, they’re probably correct. Giannis gets you multiple first round picks and a few decent players in return. He’s the only trade asset you have.
Now as we talked about on the podcast yesterday, that option is not what I want. If Giannis is willing to sit through a rough year next season (and we’re probably looking at a 35-40 win team at best) then you do that. Brook is off of the books this summer, Pat and Bobby are off of the books next summer, maybe by some act of God you can deal Kuzma this offseason or next, and then you’re looking a payroll flexibility and Dame back for 2026-27. You’d still be paying Giannis and Dame a ton in that scenario, but I’m telling you, as much as it might make sense to trade Giannis, you’re not going to like what this franchise looks like post-Giannis. If you unload both Dame and Giannis, this franchise is likely headed to the wilderness for a decade or more. Giannis is still only 30 years old, he’s a future HOFer and a Top 30-ish player all time. That’s a pretty good place to start a soft rebuild. If he’s willing to gut it out, it would be foolish to unload him.
Now if Giannis doesn’t want to play through a year with no title hopes next season? Then we’re really about to be in the weeds.
One final point that relates to the sentence directly above this one: Cherish tonight and however long this series goes. Most of the chatter revolving around Giannis leaving Milwaukee has been national sports media bluster. Stephen A Smith and Skip Bayless screaming into the void. Giannis has been loyal and has signed every extension put in front of him. But when the uncertainty this franchise now faces, I think we’re talking about a real life chance he’s gone this summer. I think it’s still a small chance, 5-10% in my mind, but there’s a chance. There’s a chance that Sunday night was his last home game as a Buck, there’s a chance that tonight is his last game as a Buck. Soak it in, no matter how frustrating it is.
PS: One reason I don’t think Giannis is going anywhere unless he forces his way out: Jimmy Haslem. For all of the mistakes he makes as a meddling owner, Haslem did NOT buy into this franchise to see it’s value immediately dip. And if Giannis leaves, this franchise’s worth takes a BIG dip.
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